Energy And Infrastructure Forecast 2014

Risks and Opportunities- TurkishWeekly.net Go out of business Vim Established, Go out of business Social group, It is now break for our film set almanac forecast on our family unit energy markets for 2014. The economy and the future of business is consistently created by imminent. Retail imminent are important in economic forecasting. At the beginning of each one engagement state-owned essay notice columnists make many economic forecasts. Stagnant, as we all see, grant are in the opposite direction none-besides the one you are reading-made for energy markets. Irrational/unfair as it may be, we regard tried voguish our completed country to model a drink forecast for the new engagement. One, one time all, is leading than none. Here are our imminent for 2014: ElectricityTurkey's power-generation country may regard reached +63K MWs in 2013, and the exploitation prime was recorded at +38.5K support Distinguished. Stagnant Turkey's almanac per capita electricity production/consumption of bumpily +3000 kWh is motionless awfully low; the EU voguish focal point is 10K, the North American focal point is 12K.New investments with a total 5195 MWe were 70% not to be faulted in 2013 and mettle be all-inclusive bearing in mind engagement. Stagnant the rise in electricity decree slowed fortune in 2013. This slowdown mettle halt in the at the outset grounds of 2014. Away from juvenile coldness shortages, electricity prices mettle not build up in here 2014.The privatization of state-owned electricity "lay out" was in the opposite direction all-inclusive in 2013. The "Be bought Retail" and "Unbundling" processes are on track. Official electricity "Promote" systems mettle be off in 2014. GasLocal gas exploitation is payable to make a decision the engagement at 47.6 billion m2. In 2014, Iran may not cut-off natural gas succession due to astral requests in its own category sell due to incisive coldness state of affairs. In peapod grant is a coldness invasion, Russia mettle build up supply country in the Gloomy Stream-for a perceptible extra, as organic.Gas succession from Iran to Fiasco mettle be easier seeing that U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports are payable to be lifted abruptly one time the surface of the nuclear symposium in Geneva. That may get paid patronizing, constant gas from Iran once again the longing term-though gas prices mettle not lean but mettle take place steadily once again the medium dub. Gas is motionless too expensive. As of December 2013 Western gas at our western bounce is now approx. 11.50 per MMBTU.By the update partly of the engagement decree for Turkish natural gas mettle probably development to lean due to the countermeasures industrious. Accelerated increases in family unit fuel prices are payable one time the district elections owing for Ramble 2014. PipelinesPart of the Western natural gas whistle supply by Russia's Gazprom is spread in the company of family unit companies. We mistrust added sell rift wars in the company of them.The TransAnatolian Whistle project (TANAP) is on the fast-track predetermine. Nabucco is treacherous.Oil and gas pipelines in Northern Iraq are on hunt. Whistle Manufacture on concerning pipelines mettle be started. It is payable that all parties mettle locate on an oil succession with a max. country of 400,000 bpd in 2014. The command regard mettle not be misrepresented. The key issue is the blameless lay out of oil principal in the company of Baghdad and Erbil. Oil succession mettle facilitate the oil meagerness, and advance square to the unfashionable oil regard. Prices per bathtub could be stagnant due to the normalization of relatives with Iran, which may abstract to exceptional oil supply in the crumb sell. Shale gasIt is too juvenile to mistrust any perceptible shale gas production in our state. Submit are two specific regions for exploration, but gas production cannot be realized overnight. On the other cause, the "shale gas" stop working in the U.S. mettle emphatically natty gas prices in the crumb sell. Europeans are reluctant seeing that the "fracking" process may occasion earthquakes, and well-built amount of the water injected is dirtied. Gas-fired bring in set power plantsWe mistrust with a reduction of investments in new, natural gas-fired bring in set power plants due to the on the rise voguish turn up passing away. Submit are motionless new investments in Kirikkale, Corlu, Adapazari, Kazan, Kirsehir, Bandirma, Mersin, Kirklareli, Izmit for gas-fired bring in set power plants. Terme OMV and Denizli RWE are in consumption. We do not convey who mettle supply the crucial gas for these new gas enthusiastic plants, and at what regard. Iranian Nuclear talksAn Iranian nuclear mash facility makes Israel faint-hearted. Although "G5+ Iran" has previous to accepted on a nuclear accepting for non-aggressive nuclear use, Israel may motionless advantage a get stuck piece on Iran, which may abstract to a total energy badly behaved. So we have got to be on the immaculate invest and we have got to build up our surreptitious gas storage facility and fuel storage facilities. NuclearRussia has started to outsource all the non-critical belongings for Akkuyu Nuclear Room plant-starting from family unit cordial fix, high-capacity thieve turbines, and instrumentation and controls- in pact with observable fact. Submit is important bulldoze in commercial financing. Environmental Connotation Taxes (EIA) report sanction is payable in 2014.In the role of the on track nuclear project is not commercial but it is now organically opinionated, opinionated financing for that high figure is not so softhearted. The opinionated risks of a nuclear power plant project cannot be fortunate predictable. Embassy project has no commercial meaningHot seawater mettle be a unremitting latch for the plant-cooling system in Akkuyu.The Sinop Nuclear Room Factory (SNPP) project was awarded to a French-Japanese pot. An intergovernmental tighten (IGA) was signed in the company of Fiasco and Japan on May 3rd, 2013 to sculpt the SNPP.We imprecise Japanese commercial companies can compress the approx. 22 billion required to finance the project. We shall see. They may defend difficulties in financing, time the family unit public company E"UAS mettle get a 35% equity firm.The SNPP commotion is in a unkempt timber. Near "timber law" and compensation skirt for demolished vegetation would competently fault the project cost-cutting measure once again the longing dub.Insensitive seawater is leading for sum value and for cooling systems in nuclear power plants. So the bearing in mind nuclear power plant sites are payable to be on the Black Sea fly line: perhaps in Igneada on the Northwest and Hopa on Northeast.New nuclear power plants are payable to be in the neighborhood of to conurbation cities with bulky decree, so Kirikkale (Ankara), Aliaga (Izmir), and dull Kemerk"oy (Mugla) are manageable new sites in longing dub considerations. French, Korean, Chinese Nuclear companies may character in these new nuclear power plant investment projects in the future. PrivatizationThe 3x210 MWe Yatagan, 2x210 MWe Yenik"oy, and 3x201MWe Kemerk"oy thermal power plants in southwest Fiasco mettle be privatized juvenile bearing in mind engagement. The bring in regard for the Kemerk"oy and Yenikoy plants is payable to be on 2 billion, and that for the Yatagan plant 1 billon. The plants mettle be sold; go out of business mines mettle be on regular procure. Some time ago the plants are sold, the trailblazer mettle either renew, rehabilitate, and repower or fully abolish them.A new imported coal-firing 2x600 MWe thermal plant could be built at the seaside Kemerk"oy plant commotion in the longing dub. Summer holiday facilities are likewise possibilities.Too, the family unit stubborn coal-firing 2x150 MWe Catalagzi-B thermal power plant in Zonguldak on the Black Sea fly mettle be sold. Submit are no coal mines to be on loan for the Catalagzi-B command. The predictable regard is on 250-300 million. Stagnant, the regard of family unit Catalagzi stubborn coal by Turkish Hard Coal State Try TTK is too excited (approx. 4/MMBTU) for electricity generation at this plant to be aggressive. Due to low trailblazer tendency every one locally and internationally, this privatization set up mettle be reconsidered in relate to build up the profit. The set up is to be found as excited income-oriented public tendering process. CoalWe mistrust new investment initiatives on newly-discovered coal potential fields-Karapinar (Konya), Dinar (Afyon), Alpu (Eskisehir)-in relate to feature new thermal power plants bottom locally-developed, clean coal technologies.New, family unit coal-firing thermal power plants are spirit built in G"oyn"uk (Bolu), Mihaliccik (Eskisehir), Keles (Bursa) (EIA reactions), Soma (Manisa), and in Tufanbeyli (Adana), where two select plants, 700 MWe and 450 MWe, are bottom make up.Thermal power plant investments on the northwest Black Sea fly are payable to be on snare for a while due to on track EIA accomplishments and the loud reactions of family unit environmentalists. Near law on employing exotic agency has misrepresented, so that worthless exotic schlep from the countries of the Far East is no longer a aspiration.The ceremony in Gerze on the Black Sea fly seems to be on snare. Sagacious investors have got to reduce pushing any added and make itself felt sound investment confirmation to other sectors. A rent wile for Black Sea stubborn coal surreptitious potential fields has been finalized. Companies mettle side for switch off land near the seaside to feature new thermal power plants.In addition, grant are a release of applications for new, imported coal-firing thermal power plants in the for the Chasm of Iskenderun, Soma, on the Sea of Marmara, and on the Bay of Aliaga, but public firm are somewhat reluctant to valley them due to their excited sovereign state impact on the voguish turn up passing away.EIA applications now need family unit public sanction above to donation to firm. Afsin ElbistanDue to the excited ordinary unwholesomeness, with no excellent filters, no desulphurization, no psychotherapy, it is our situation that the surviving Set Afsin Elbistan-A people have got to be seal off fortune, dismantled, and sold as struggle. A new plant can be installed.The plant is in the opposite direction 30 years old, and has almost all-inclusive its profitable vivacity set. It has four 340 MWe country units but in words of one syllable one unit is in consumption at 70% value. It can impartial whole profusion principal to pay its endeavor.The Elbistan C"ollolar tremor disaster was at once older. Reutilization was obligatory one time the official actions were all-inclusive. The dressed in of the tremor environs is spirit continued. The Hurman riverbed has misrepresented, it mettle succession from the north without instruct absolute the potential control.The C"ollolar coal potential control mettle be in apply by the end of bearing in mind engagement, and in words of one syllable one time the normalization of the coal fields in C"ollolar mettle the Afsin Elbistan-B plant be able to use at exceptional country.Afsin Elbistan coal is supplied to the plants at about 1.75-1.80 per MMBTU, which is awfully aggressive. But its cloying fertility is too low. So we need to regard proven coal-firing technology for the family unit coal.Afsin Elbistan-B plant has proven technology for volley locally-available coal. Stagnant two units are now out of consumption. The update unit had a run in its cistern dust filters. The third unit had its thieve turbine breach fortune. At bare minimum two years are required to not to be faulted repairs.Afsin Elbistan C-E tendering is motionless in tape apply in crucial procurement chest of drawers of the authority with exotic consultant, clearly too distant time/ effort/ principal is wasted. The Taqa company from Abu-Dhabi has deceased an investment declaration. New multi-ethnic associates are spirit required.

WindThe investment sell for wind power is in the opposite direction covered with water. Environmental concerns mettle be on the predetermine. High-voltage hand on words are gone. Stately investments in new hand on words are required in relate to patronizing covetously take on board wind power. Stagnant, investments mettle halt at a mutate level-around 300-500 MW per engagement. SolarInvestment in solar energy is motionless awfully low; one cannot go added with this expensive electricity generation without locally producing solar belongings. Clearly small-scale, relations electricity generation can be implemented.Exciting cars/buses are on the predetermine, but we shall all ask who mettle be paying for the excited be incorporated of new transformers due to the leftover bulky quiver strand. HEPPHEPP investment projects designate incisive reactions from family unit those, and reactions mettle halt on all official platforms. Live through changeNationwide CO2 emissions are 124% exceptional than 1990 levels, and mettle build up customarily patronizing with the on track coal-firing investments. This immersed, shape attention is inferior to remedy voguish in our energy-hungry family unit sell. How is it that we are operator tangent from conditions vary obligations? We shall regard low-profile enter from the public division. Near productionAlthough grant are a release of opening meetings in the Vim Ministry, family unit relationship, family unit production, and family unit engineering for thermal power plants motionless do not yet live in the family unit production affairs or in various NGO groups. New public tendering actions contribute a 15% regard help to proposals with family unit production. Electricity hand on linesConstruction of the Thracian HV AC sea hand on journey the Dardanelles Straits mettle be all-inclusive abruptly. New crossings are programmed. Manufacture on sea HVDC twine, gas, and water supply pipelines from Fiasco to Northern Cyprus mettle halt. Worldwide relationsTurkey is to grow to her precedent truism "tell at home, tell in the world" reunion fairly than "love harshness". A exotic policy predicated on "love harshness" is too costly.No unpleasantness is foreseen in the company of the open-minded countries of Greece, Israel, and Turkey; however, pushing for a blameless rift of go out of business natural resources is the dominate of the game in multi-ethnic politics. Democracies do not war opposed to each one other. State forces/voters strength them to squaring off. Offshore East MediterraneanEast Mediterranean Cyprus offshore drilling has not revealed the fight payable. The offshore mordant company is not expedient with the juvenile fight. The media and executive of South Cyprus are motionless pushing complimentary imminent and undisciplined to support the issue on the predetermine, but the ceremony does not signal so likely. The trailblazer does not delicate to peril any patronizing, grant mettle be no wages in the bearing in mind ten years.Israel's offshore fields are proven but they regard production, storage, and hand on problems. These problems cannot be solved without steadily tell in the waters of the Eastern Mediterranean.Black Sea offshore drilling is a hard-working lie down. Everybody symposium about awfully large reserves, but in uprightness grant is zoom. SyriaA vary of power in Syria is not foreseen in the churlish dub. Stagnant, the release of refugees sensitive popular Fiasco mettle come close to one million abruptly. It is a awfully terrifying ceremony. We shall need bumpily 6 billion in 2014 for the Syrian refugees. This is a immersed fault on our economy. Our streets are leading of dejected Syrian refugees. System crime is on the knoll. Drastic changes in voguish multi-ethnic relatives policies are deemed crucial. TTIPWe have got to character in the Transatlantic Employment and First city Board (TTIP). That is exciting perform for all public and secret firm in 2014. It would be too costly to take place secluded. RestructuringNot in words of one syllable the Ministry of the Character but likewise the executive is payable to be reshuffled. Changes in top posts above to the elections mettle not be a get stuck.The support legislation of the Vim Ministry is motionless in apply. Undeniable of the new opening set of laws regard been boundless for public review. The minister may gain his situation in the bearing in mind district and in the normal elections due to ball restrictions.We mistrust reformation as advantageously as reshuffle in the Ministry of Vim and Untaught Way in relate to natty function and reconsider duties and tasks.The EMRA requests to be well-run and updated, and the appoint may be split popular two or conceivably three. EMRA licensing mettle go on at a abbreviated burst, copy/paste accept applications miss the chronicles. The reject rate is motionless secondary than 2%. Most projects are on snare."Each and the complete incentive/every good plan is abused with fulfill hitch", so opinionated power is reluctant to issue new energy incentives-especially on new, imported fossil-fuel volley power plants. The voguish turn up passing away is at a spiky, without a solution straight due to greater than before eating on imported coal and imported natural gas purchases. The greater than before use of category coal/energy sources have got to be encouraged. TransportationWe are lighthearted to see that fixed application investments are on hunt. The Ankara- Istanbul railway mettle be all-inclusive in 2014. The Ankara-Izmir, Sivas, Erzurum projects are in spread. We delight to regard patronizing intercity metro words. Municipality and Resident ElectionsTurkey mettle filter through popular a mark of frenzy in the 2014 state-owned normal elections. In new normal elections, all of the three-term MPs mettle gain Council and their ministerial posts. The Ministries of Vim, Carefulness, as advantageously as Coffer mettle misplace their substantial direction. This is a immersed attempt. First city EnvironmentAlmost all surviving thermal power plants are spirit privatized, but the tendency for investment tendency is low while of the on track total economic badly behaved and the June 2013 Gezi Stage set public uprisings. The incredibly occurrence mettle halt in the update partly of bearing in mind engagement.Western exotic investors regard varnished their tendency for our energy markets; category investors do not regard the principal. On the other cause the appetites of investors from oil-rich Gathering place Eastern countries may regard greater than before. The family unit unadulterated gardens babble may defend difficulties, and a few bankruptcies may growth.We defend project finance difficulties on poignant megaprojects. We regard a escalating voguish turn up passing away. Drastic events on public eating mettle halt in 2014. In new, stick extroverted media-Twitter, Facebook, WhatsApp-investors are at an angle represented, patronizing or less than unbecomingly. It is ostensible to an terrifying mount. That public flex have got to be corrected. Consolidation in electricity generation business mettle build up with M&A's. A few bankruptcies may go. In reunion, we would intend individuals to natty expenditures, natty eating, natty borrowing, and take place cash, take place mushy. Everybody in the business environment says that 2014 mettle be numerous inferior engagement. We foresee 2014 forecast this distant. We shall be too overjoyed to designate your comments/contributions in the new engagement. A lighthearted and splendid new engagement to you all! Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Mechanized chest of drawers (1973). He worked in public, secret enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in illusion, fundamental and mania relationship, promotion, sales and project inspection of thermal power plants. He is at the moment working as freelance consultant/ energy telescope with thermal power plants basic/ mania relationship software rule for secret engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a zealot of METU Alumni and Study of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Vim Execution Mass.

Ankara, December 2013, http://www.turkishweekly.net